February 13, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Benson Henderson | Brandon Thatch |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 293 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Benson Henderson's 10-fight experience advantage (13 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Benson Henderson for the expected result. Had Brandon Thatch pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Benson Henderson | Brandon Thatch |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 252 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Benson Henderson | Brandon Thatch |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 4 | 4 |
| Time of Finish | 3:58 | 3:58 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 339 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -35 |
Benson Henderson earned a finish with a Submission in round 4 at 3:58, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Brandon Thatch was submitted.
| Metric | Benson Henderson | Brandon Thatch |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 57 | 44 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 154 | 143 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 85 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 343 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Benson Henderson controlled the striking exchanges with 85 vs 51 total strikes, 57 vs 44 significant strikes. Benson Henderson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Benson Henderson | Brandon Thatch |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:35 | 0:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 448 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -51 |
Benson Henderson dominated Brandon Thatch on the ground with 3 vs 2 takedowns, 4:35 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Benson Henderson | Brandon Thatch |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 27 | 462 |
| Activity ELO | 1 387 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | +64 | -9 |
Benson Henderson demonstrated exceptional activity with 27 days since his last fight, earning a high activity bonus for the rapid turnaround. As the winner, Benson Henderson capitalized on this activity level, while Brandon Thatch's 462-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Benson Henderson | Brandon Thatch |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 223 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -12 |
Benson Henderson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brandon Thatch is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Benson Henderson | Brandon Thatch |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 140 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.