January 17, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Benson Henderson | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 275 | 1 359 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Donald Cerrone's 5-fight experience advantage (17 vs 12 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Donald Cerrone for the expected result. Had Benson Henderson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Benson Henderson | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 242 | 1 211 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Benson Henderson | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 287 | 1 552 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Donald Cerrone earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Benson Henderson | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 86 | 57 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 155 | 125 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 93 | 58 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 317 | 1 483 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Benson Henderson controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (93 vs 58 total strikes), significant strike advantage (86 vs 57). However, since Benson Henderson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Donald Cerrone's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Benson Henderson | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 397 | 1 481 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Donald Cerrone did not secure a significant ground advantage against Benson Henderson on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:32 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Benson Henderson | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 149 | 15 |
| Activity ELO | 1 323 | 1 560 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +94 |
Donald Cerrone demonstrated exceptional activity with 15 days since his last fight, earning a high activity bonus for the rapid turnaround. As the winner, Donald Cerrone capitalized on this activity level, while Benson Henderson's 149-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Benson Henderson | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 7 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 210 | 1 324 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +54 |
Donald Cerrone continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Benson Henderson's now at 0.
| Metric | Benson Henderson | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 124 | 1 203 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.