October 6, 2017
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bibulatov Magomed | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 043 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
John Moraga's 10-fight experience advantage (12 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Moraga for the expected result. Had Bibulatov Magomed pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Bibulatov Magomed | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 001 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bibulatov Magomed | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:38 | 1:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 016 | 1 212 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +76 |
John Moraga earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:38, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Bibulatov Magomed | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 10 | 14 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 980 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | -92 | +92 |
John Moraga controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. John Moraga capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Bibulatov Magomed | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 066 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Bibulatov Magomed | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 007 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +38 |
John Moraga demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, John Moraga capitalized on this activity level, while Bibulatov Magomed's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bibulatov Magomed | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 005 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
John Moraga extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Bibulatov Magomed is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bibulatov Magomed | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.