March 29, 2024
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bill Algeo | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 089 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +38 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (9 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Bill Algeo | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 029 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bill Algeo | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:00 | 4:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 179 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +121 |
Kyle Nelson earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:00, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Bill Algeo | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 58 | 59 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 44 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 133 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -85 | +85 |
Kyle Nelson slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Kyle Nelson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Bill Algeo | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 175 | 969 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Kyle Nelson did not secure a significant ground advantage against Bill Algeo on the ground with 0:48 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Bill Algeo | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 197 |
| Activity ELO | 1 108 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +30 |
Kyle Nelson demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Kyle Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Bill Algeo's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bill Algeo | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 046 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +32 |
Kyle Nelson extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Bill Algeo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bill Algeo | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 029 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.