January 18, 2025
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Billy Elekana | Bogdan Guskov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 976 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Bogdan Guskov's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Bogdan Guskov for the expected result. Had Billy Elekana pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Billy Elekana | Bogdan Guskov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Billy Elekana | Bogdan Guskov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:33 | 3:33 |
| Win Type ELO | 982 | 1 255 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +28 |
Bogdan Guskov earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:33, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Billy Elekana was submitted.
| Metric | Billy Elekana | Bogdan Guskov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 47 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 28 | 71 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 59 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 980 | 1 224 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Bogdan Guskov controlled the striking exchanges with 59 vs 28 total strikes, 47 vs 20 significant strikes. Bogdan Guskov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Billy Elekana | Bogdan Guskov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:40 | 1:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 17 |
| Ground ELO | 949 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +51 |
Bogdan Guskov edged out Billy Elekana on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:24 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Billy Elekana | Bogdan Guskov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 267 |
| Activity ELO | 986 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +18 |
Bogdan Guskov demonstrated standard activity with 267 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Bogdan Guskov capitalized on this activity level, while Billy Elekana's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Billy Elekana | Bogdan Guskov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +24 |
Bogdan Guskov extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Billy Elekana is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Billy Elekana | Bogdan Guskov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

