May 31, 2025
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Ramiz Brahimaj |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 005 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Ramiz Brahimaj's 4-fight experience advantage (7 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ramiz Brahimaj for the expected result. Had Billy Ray Goff pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Ramiz Brahimaj |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Ramiz Brahimaj |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:16 | 3:16 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 004 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +50 |
Ramiz Brahimaj earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:16, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Ramiz Brahimaj |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 007 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Ramiz Brahimaj slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 100.0% vs 33.3% accuracy. Ramiz Brahimaj capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Ramiz Brahimaj |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:59 | 1:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 938 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -79 | +79 |
Ramiz Brahimaj controlled Billy Ray Goff on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:42 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Ramiz Brahimaj |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 386 | 196 |
| Activity ELO | 983 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +19 |
Ramiz Brahimaj demonstrated standard activity with 196 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ramiz Brahimaj capitalized on this activity level, while Billy Ray Goff's 386-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Ramiz Brahimaj |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Ramiz Brahimaj extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Billy Ray Goff is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Ramiz Brahimaj |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.