May 10, 2024
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Trey Waters |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 039 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Trey Waters |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 999 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Trey Waters |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 034 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Trey Waters earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Trey Waters |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 116 | 96 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 249 | 225 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 129 | 107 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 057 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Billy Ray Goff controlled the striking through superior volume (129 vs 107 total strikes), significant strike advantage (116 vs 96). However, since Billy Ray Goff lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Trey Waters's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Trey Waters |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 12 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:06 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 017 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Trey Waters did not secure a significant ground advantage against Billy Ray Goff on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Trey Waters |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 259 | 378 |
| Activity ELO | 999 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +19 |
Trey Waters demonstrated extended layoff with 378 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Trey Waters capitalized on this activity level, while Billy Ray Goff's 259-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Trey Waters |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 001 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Trey Waters extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Billy Ray Goff is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Trey Waters |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 999 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.