August 25, 2023
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Yusaku Kinoshita |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 059 | 907 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -59 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Yusaku Kinoshita |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 020 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Yusaku Kinoshita |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:49 | 3:49 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 079 | 918 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -37 |
Billy Ray Goff earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:49, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Yusaku Kinoshita |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 85 | 53 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 43 | 17 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 080 | 826 |
| ELO Change | +80 | -80 |
Billy Ray Goff controlled the striking exchanges with 43 vs 17 total strikes, 40 vs 17 significant strikes, 47.1% vs 32.1% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Billy Ray Goff capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Yusaku Kinoshita |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 039 | 871 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Yusaku Kinoshita |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 203 |
| Activity ELO | 1 020 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Billy Ray Goff demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Billy Ray Goff capitalized on this activity level, while Yusaku Kinoshita's 203-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Yusaku Kinoshita |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 022 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Billy Ray Goff started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Yusaku Kinoshita is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Billy Ray Goff | Yusaku Kinoshita |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 020 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

