November 1, 2019
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Blagoy Ivanov | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -14 | 14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 088 | 1 261 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Derrick Lewis's 14-fight experience advantage (18 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Derrick Lewis for the expected result. Had Blagoy Ivanov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Blagoy Ivanov | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 024 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Blagoy Ivanov | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 131 | 1 510 |
| ELO Change | -2 | +2 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Derrick Lewis receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Blagoy Ivanov | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 38 | 68 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 61 | 32 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 094 | 1 358 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Blagoy Ivanov controlled the striking through superior volume (61 vs 32 total strikes), significant strike advantage (20 vs 31). However, since Blagoy Ivanov lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Derrick Lewis's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Blagoy Ivanov | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:20 | 2:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 076 | 1 212 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Derrick Lewis did not secure a significant ground advantage against Blagoy Ivanov on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:07 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Blagoy Ivanov | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | 238 |
| Activity ELO | 1 089 | 1 340 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +11 |
Derrick Lewis demonstrated standard activity with 238 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Derrick Lewis capitalized on this activity level, while Blagoy Ivanov's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Blagoy Ivanov | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 039 | 1 211 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +14 |
Derrick Lewis started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Blagoy Ivanov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Blagoy Ivanov | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.