June 9, 2023
Featherweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Blake Bilder | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 022 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Kyle Nelson's 5-fight experience advantage (7 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kyle Nelson for the expected result. Had Blake Bilder pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Blake Bilder | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 995 | 975 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Blake Bilder | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 997 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Kyle Nelson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Blake Bilder | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 59 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 120 | 126 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 84 | 83 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 993 | 948 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Kyle Nelson edged the striking exchanges with 59 vs 45 significant strikes, 46.8% vs 37.5% accuracy. Kyle Nelson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Blake Bilder | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:45 | 2:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 013 | 900 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Kyle Nelson did not secure a significant ground advantage against Blake Bilder on the ground with 2:21 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Blake Bilder | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 998 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +47 |
Kyle Nelson demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kyle Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Blake Bilder's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Blake Bilder | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 997 | 983 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +27 |
Kyle Nelson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Blake Bilder is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Blake Bilder | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 995 | 975 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

