July 15, 2017
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bobby Nash | Danny Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 944 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Danny Roberts's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Danny Roberts for the expected result. Had Bobby Nash pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Bobby Nash | Danny Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 961 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bobby Nash | Danny Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:59 | 3:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 941 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +62 |
Danny Roberts gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Bobby Nash | Danny Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 63 | 65 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 46 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 859 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -65 | +65 |
Bobby Nash controlled the striking through superior volume (46 vs 29 total strikes). However, since Bobby Nash lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Danny Roberts's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Bobby Nash | Danny Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:01 | 0:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 955 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Danny Roberts landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Bobby Nash | Danny Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 281 |
| Activity ELO | 963 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Danny Roberts demonstrated standard activity with 281 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Danny Roberts capitalized on this activity level, while Bobby Nash's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bobby Nash | Danny Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 962 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Danny Roberts started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Bobby Nash is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bobby Nash | Danny Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 961 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.