January 27, 2017
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bobby Nash | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 971 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Li Jingliang's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Li Jingliang for the expected result. Had Bobby Nash pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Bobby Nash | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bobby Nash | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:45 | 4:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 971 | 1 167 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +60 |
Li Jingliang gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Bobby Nash | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 39 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 106 | 75 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 59 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 924 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -76 | +76 |
Bobby Nash controlled the striking through superior volume (59 vs 43 total strikes), superior accuracy (36.8% vs 49.3%), 1 knockdown. However, since Bobby Nash lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Li Jingliang's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Bobby Nash | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:41 | 0:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 980 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Li Jingliang landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Bobby Nash | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 205 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Li Jingliang demonstrated standard activity with 205 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Li Jingliang capitalized on this activity level, while Bobby Nash's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bobby Nash | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Li Jingliang extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Bobby Nash is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bobby Nash | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.