June 21, 2025
Featherweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bogdan Grad | Muhammad Naimov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 038 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Muhammad Naimov's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Muhammad Naimov for the expected result. Had Bogdan Grad pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Bogdan Grad | Muhammad Naimov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 001 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bogdan Grad | Muhammad Naimov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 050 | 1 214 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Muhammad Naimov earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Bogdan Grad | Muhammad Naimov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 64 | 54 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 49 | 70 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 032 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Bogdan Grad controlled the striking through superior volume (49 vs 70 total strikes), significant strike advantage (31 vs 18), superior accuracy (48.4% vs 33.3%). However, since Bogdan Grad lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Muhammad Naimov's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Bogdan Grad | Muhammad Naimov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:09 | 2:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 040 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Muhammad Naimov did not secure a significant ground advantage against Bogdan Grad on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:53 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Bogdan Grad | Muhammad Naimov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 005 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +31 |
Muhammad Naimov demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Muhammad Naimov capitalized on this activity level, while Bogdan Grad's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bogdan Grad | Muhammad Naimov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 004 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Muhammad Naimov extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Bogdan Grad is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bogdan Grad | Muhammad Naimov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

