September 1, 2023
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Volkan Oezdemir |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -12 | 12 |
| Experience ELO | 976 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Volkan Oezdemir's 12-fight experience advantage (13 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Volkan Oezdemir for the expected result. Had Bogdan Guskov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Volkan Oezdemir |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Volkan Oezdemir |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:46 | 3:46 |
| Win Type ELO | 990 | 1 359 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +17 |
Volkan Oezdemir earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:46, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Volkan Oezdemir |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 25 | 46 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 971 | 1 306 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Volkan Oezdemir controlled the striking exchanges with 36 vs 10 total strikes, 26 vs 8 significant strikes, 56.5% vs 32.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Volkan Oezdemir capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Volkan Oezdemir |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 910 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | -90 | +90 |
Volkan Oezdemir dominated Bogdan Guskov on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:23 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Volkan Oezdemir |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 315 |
| Activity ELO | 989 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Volkan Oezdemir demonstrated standard activity with 315 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Volkan Oezdemir capitalized on this activity level, while Bogdan Guskov's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Volkan Oezdemir |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +19 |
Volkan Oezdemir started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Bogdan Guskov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Volkan Oezdemir |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

