February 9, 2024
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 013 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -32 |
Bogdan Guskov overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 4 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Zac Pauga.
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 002 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:38 | 3:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 075 | 930 |
| ELO Change | +85 | -40 |
Bogdan Guskov earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:38, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 29 | 26 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 25 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 047 | 848 |
| ELO Change | +76 | -76 |
Bogdan Guskov controlled the striking exchanges with 10 vs 17 significant strikes, 34.5% vs 65.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Bogdan Guskov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:04 | 1:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 934 | 938 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Bogdan Guskov did not secure a significant ground advantage against Zac Pauga on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | 239 |
| Activity ELO | 1 025 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -21 |
Bogdan Guskov demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Bogdan Guskov capitalized on this activity level, while Zac Pauga's 239-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 006 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Bogdan Guskov started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Zac Pauga is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 002 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

