September 28, 2024
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bolaji Oki | Chris Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 996 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Chris Duncan's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Duncan for the expected result. Had Bolaji Oki pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Bolaji Oki | Chris Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bolaji Oki | Chris Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:34 | 3:34 |
| Win Type ELO | 972 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +64 |
Chris Duncan earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:34, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Bolaji Oki | Chris Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 50 | 25 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 29 | 12 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 016 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Bolaji Oki controlled the striking through superior volume (29 vs 12 total strikes), significant strike advantage (28 vs 10), superior accuracy (56.0% vs 40.0%). However, since Bolaji Oki lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Chris Duncan's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Bolaji Oki | Chris Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:11 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 977 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Chris Duncan edged out Bolaji Oki on the ground with 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Bolaji Oki | Chris Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 232 | 218 |
| Activity ELO | 1 001 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Chris Duncan demonstrated standard activity with 218 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Chris Duncan capitalized on this activity level, while Bolaji Oki's 232-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bolaji Oki | Chris Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 002 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Chris Duncan started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Bolaji Oki is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bolaji Oki | Chris Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 000 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.