May 31, 2025
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bolaji Oki | Michael Aswell Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 028 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Bolaji Oki's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Bolaji Oki for the expected result. Had Michael Aswell Jr. pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Bolaji Oki | Michael Aswell Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bolaji Oki | Michael Aswell Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 017 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Bolaji Oki earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Bolaji Oki | Michael Aswell Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 136 | 118 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 303 | 309 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 136 | 118 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 040 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Bolaji Oki controlled the striking exchanges with 136 vs 118 significant strikes. Bolaji Oki capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Bolaji Oki | Michael Aswell Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 999 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Bolaji Oki | Michael Aswell Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 245 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 027 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -21 |
Bolaji Oki demonstrated standard activity with 245 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Bolaji Oki capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Aswell Jr.'s null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bolaji Oki | Michael Aswell Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 025 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Bolaji Oki started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael Aswell Jr. is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bolaji Oki | Michael Aswell Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.