June 19, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brad Blackburn | Edgar Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 081 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Brad Blackburn's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brad Blackburn for the expected result. Had Edgar Garcia pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brad Blackburn | Edgar Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 060 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brad Blackburn | Edgar Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 124 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +7 | -7 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Brad Blackburn receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Brad Blackburn | Edgar Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 66 | 39 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 162 | 185 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 66 | 39 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 267 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Brad Blackburn controlled the striking exchanges with 66 vs 39 total strikes, 66 vs 39 significant strikes, 40.7% vs 21.1% accuracy. Brad Blackburn capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brad Blackburn | Edgar Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:06 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 102 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Brad Blackburn | Edgar Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 175 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 088 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -18 |
Brad Blackburn demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Brad Blackburn capitalized on this activity level, while Edgar Garcia's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Blackburn | Edgar Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 071 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -18 |
Brad Blackburn extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Edgar Garcia is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brad Blackburn | Edgar Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 060 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

