June 7, 2024
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brad Katona | Jesse Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 983 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Brad Katona's 5-fight experience advantage (7 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brad Katona for the expected result. Had Jesse Butler pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brad Katona | Jesse Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 012 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brad Katona | Jesse Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 037 | 947 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Brad Katona earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Brad Katona | Jesse Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 68 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 113 | 82 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 148 | 32 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 029 | 895 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Brad Katona dominated the striking exchanges with 148 vs 32 total strikes, 68 vs 30 significant strikes, 60.2% vs 36.6% accuracy. Brad Katona capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brad Katona | Jesse Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:50 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 40 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 037 | 871 |
| ELO Change | +104 | -104 |
Brad Katona dominated Jesse Butler on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 10:50 of control time, 40 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Katona | Jesse Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 371 |
| Activity ELO | 1 047 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -20 |
Brad Katona demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Brad Katona capitalized on this activity level, while Jesse Butler's 371-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Katona | Jesse Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 021 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Brad Katona started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jesse Butler is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brad Katona | Jesse Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 012 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.