February 26, 2016
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brad Pickett | Francisco Rivera |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 988 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -26 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (10 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Brad Pickett | Francisco Rivera |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 973 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brad Pickett | Francisco Rivera |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 004 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Brad Pickett receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Brad Pickett | Francisco Rivera |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 39 | 69 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 137 | 165 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 64 | 69 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 907 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Francisco Rivera controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (69 vs 39), superior accuracy (41.8% vs 28.5%). However, since Francisco Rivera lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Brad Pickett's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Brad Pickett | Francisco Rivera |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:19 | 0:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 016 | 830 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -66 |
Brad Pickett controlled Francisco Rivera on the ground with 3 vs 2 takedowns, 3:19 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Pickett | Francisco Rivera |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 232 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 037 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -23 |
Brad Pickett demonstrated standard activity with 232 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Brad Pickett capitalized on this activity level, while Francisco Rivera's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Pickett | Francisco Rivera |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -25 |
Brad Pickett started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Francisco Rivera is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brad Pickett | Francisco Rivera |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 973 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.