November 4, 2011
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brad Pickett | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 970 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Brad Pickett | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brad Pickett | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:09 | 4:09 |
| Win Type ELO | 963 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +61 |
Renan Barao earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:09, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Brad Pickett | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 56 | 98 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 38 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 921 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -79 | +79 |
Renan Barao controlled the striking exchanges with 38 vs 10 total strikes, 37 vs 10 significant strikes, 37.8% vs 17.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Renan Barao capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brad Pickett | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 919 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | -81 | +81 |
Renan Barao dominated Brad Pickett on the ground with 0:46 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brad Pickett | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 162 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +35 |
Renan Barao demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Renan Barao capitalized on this activity level, while Brad Pickett's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Pickett | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Renan Barao extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brad Pickett is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brad Pickett | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.