February 21, 2020
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brad Riddell | Magomed Mustafaev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 069 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -40 |
Brad Riddell overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Magomed Mustafaev.
| Metric | Brad Riddell | Magomed Mustafaev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 043 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brad Riddell | Magomed Mustafaev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 057 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Brad Riddell receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Brad Riddell | Magomed Mustafaev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 38 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 72 | 46 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 138 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | +92 | -92 |
Brad Riddell controlled the striking exchanges with 60 vs 36 total strikes, 38 vs 28 significant strikes, 52.8% vs 60.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Brad Riddell capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brad Riddell | Magomed Mustafaev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 8 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 11 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:02 | 7:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 15 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 066 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Brad Riddell did not secure a significant ground advantage against Magomed Mustafaev on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:02 of control time, 15 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Brad Riddell | Magomed Mustafaev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | 309 |
| Activity ELO | 1 069 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -24 |
Brad Riddell demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Brad Riddell capitalized on this activity level, while Magomed Mustafaev's 309-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Riddell | Magomed Mustafaev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 050 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -23 |
Brad Riddell extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Magomed Mustafaev is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brad Riddell | Magomed Mustafaev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 043 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.