November 11, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brad Riddell | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 074 | 1 203 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Renato Moicano's 7-fight experience advantage (14 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Renato Moicano for the expected result. Had Brad Riddell pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brad Riddell | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brad Riddell | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:20 | 3:20 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 086 | 1 313 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +39 |
Renato Moicano earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:20, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Brad Riddell | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 25 | 33 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 086 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Brad Riddell controlled the striking through superior accuracy (56.0% vs 30.3%). However, since Brad Riddell lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Renato Moicano's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Brad Riddell | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:14 | 0:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 080 | 1 284 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Renato Moicano edged out Brad Riddell on the ground with 0:34 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brad Riddell | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 252 |
| Activity ELO | 1 068 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +21 |
Renato Moicano demonstrated standard activity with 252 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Renato Moicano capitalized on this activity level, while Brad Riddell's 134-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Riddell | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 044 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +20 |
Renato Moicano started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brad Riddell is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brad Riddell | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 020 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.