September 9, 2016
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Caio Magalhaes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 129 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Brad Tavares's 6-fight experience advantage (13 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brad Tavares for the expected result. Had Caio Magalhaes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Caio Magalhaes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 080 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Caio Magalhaes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 169 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Brad Tavares receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Caio Magalhaes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 46 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 100 | 81 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 58 | 39 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 055 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Brad Tavares controlled the striking exchanges with 46 vs 26 significant strikes, 46.0% vs 32.1% accuracy. Brad Tavares capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Caio Magalhaes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:59 | 2:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 030 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Brad Tavares did not secure a significant ground advantage against Caio Magalhaes on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:59 of control time, 1 ground strike, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Caio Magalhaes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 490 | 426 |
| Activity ELO | 1 168 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -16 |
Brad Tavares demonstrated extended layoff with 490 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Brad Tavares capitalized on this activity level, while Caio Magalhaes's 426-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Caio Magalhaes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 114 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Brad Tavares started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Caio Magalhaes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Caio Magalhaes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 080 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.