August 18, 2023
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Chris Weidman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 23 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 174 | 1 245 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Brad Tavares's 5-fight experience advantage (23 vs 18 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brad Tavares for the expected result. Had Chris Weidman pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Chris Weidman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 108 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Chris Weidman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 266 | 1 395 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -69 |
Brad Tavares earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Chris Weidman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 70 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 115 | 92 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 71 | 39 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 136 | 1 192 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
Brad Tavares controlled the striking exchanges with 71 vs 39 total strikes, 70 vs 37 significant strikes, 60.9% vs 40.2% accuracy. Brad Tavares capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Chris Weidman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 133 | 1 437 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Brad Tavares did not secure a significant ground advantage against Chris Weidman on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Chris Weidman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 847 |
| Activity ELO | 1 274 | 1 268 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -26 |
Brad Tavares demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Brad Tavares capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Weidman's 847-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Chris Weidman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 159 | 1 252 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -30 |
Brad Tavares started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chris Weidman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Chris Weidman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 100 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.