July 6, 2017
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Elias Theodorou |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 160 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Brad Tavares's 7-fight experience advantage (14 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brad Tavares for the expected result. Had Elias Theodorou pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Elias Theodorou |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 101 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Elias Theodorou |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 218 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Brad Tavares earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Elias Theodorou |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 34 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 71 | 82 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 34 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 085 | 1 193 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Elias Theodorou controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (64 vs 34 total strikes). However, since Elias Theodorou lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Brad Tavares's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Elias Theodorou |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:07 | 4:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 070 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Brad Tavares did not secure a significant ground advantage against Elias Theodorou on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:07 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Elias Theodorou |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 300 | 138 |
| Activity ELO | 1 187 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Brad Tavares demonstrated standard activity with 300 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Brad Tavares capitalized on this activity level, while Elias Theodorou's 138-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Elias Theodorou |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 138 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -20 |
Brad Tavares extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Elias Theodorou is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Elias Theodorou |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 101 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.