April 13, 2018
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Krzysztof Jotko |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 223 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Brad Tavares's 6-fight experience advantage (16 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brad Tavares for the expected result. Had Krzysztof Jotko pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Krzysztof Jotko |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 139 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Krzysztof Jotko |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:16 | 2:16 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 350 | 1 195 |
| ELO Change | +73 | -36 |
Brad Tavares gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Krzysztof Jotko |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 46 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 96 | 74 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 270 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +99 | -99 |
Brad Tavares controlled the striking exchanges with 62 vs 40 total strikes, 46 vs 24 significant strikes, 47.9% vs 32.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Brad Tavares capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Krzysztof Jotko |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:32 | 0:45 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 198 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Brad Tavares landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Krzysztof Jotko |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 210 |
| Activity ELO | 1 273 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -15 |
Brad Tavares demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Brad Tavares capitalized on this activity level, while Krzysztof Jotko's 210-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Krzysztof Jotko |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 190 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -16 |
Brad Tavares extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Krzysztof Jotko is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Krzysztof Jotko |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 139 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.