January 14, 2014
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 148 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Brad Tavares's 5-fight experience advantage (8 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brad Tavares for the expected result. Had Lorenz Larkin pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 107 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 212 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Brad Tavares earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 39 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 112 | 113 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 181 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Brad Tavares edged the striking exchanges with 45 vs 39 significant strikes. Brad Tavares capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:11 | 0:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 178 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Brad Tavares edged out Lorenz Larkin on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:11 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 1 169 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -14 |
Brad Tavares demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Brad Tavares capitalized on this activity level, while Lorenz Larkin's 70-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 142 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -15 |
Brad Tavares continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Lorenz Larkin's now at 0.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 107 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.