July 9, 2021
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Omari Akhmedov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 20 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 210 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Brad Tavares's 6-fight experience advantage (20 vs 14 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brad Tavares for the expected result. Had Omari Akhmedov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Omari Akhmedov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 129 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Omari Akhmedov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 288 | 1 336 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Brad Tavares receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Omari Akhmedov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 84 | 48 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 150 | 166 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 88 | 50 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 192 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | +104 | -104 |
Brad Tavares controlled the striking exchanges with 88 vs 50 total strikes, 84 vs 48 significant strikes, 56.0% vs 28.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Brad Tavares capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Omari Akhmedov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:09 | 1:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 186 | 1 317 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Brad Tavares landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Omari Akhmedov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 171 |
| Activity ELO | 1 263 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -19 |
Brad Tavares demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Brad Tavares capitalized on this activity level, while Omari Akhmedov's 171-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Omari Akhmedov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 180 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Brad Tavares extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Omari Akhmedov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Omari Akhmedov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 128 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.