August 15, 2014
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 084 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Tim Boetsch's 5-fight experience advantage (15 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tim Boetsch for the expected result. Had Brad Tavares pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 061 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:18 | 3:18 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 134 | 1 261 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +86 |
Tim Boetsch gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 56 | 28 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 37 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 017 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | -139 | +139 |
Tim Boetsch dominated the striking exchanges with 14 vs 24 significant strikes, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Tim Boetsch capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:17 | 0:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 985 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -72 | +72 |
Tim Boetsch landed 2 knockdowns followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 126 | 1 226 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +47 |
Tim Boetsch demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tim Boetsch capitalized on this activity level, while Brad Tavares's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 093 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
Tim Boetsch started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brad Tavares is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 061 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.