September 28, 2012
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 075 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Brad Tavares's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brad Tavares for the expected result. Had Tom Watson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 055 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 128 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +7 | -7 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Brad Tavares receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 83 | 65 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 173 | 127 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 92 | 72 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 113 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Brad Tavares controlled the striking exchanges with 92 vs 72 total strikes, 83 vs 65 significant strikes. Brad Tavares capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 12 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:25 | 1:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 111 | 949 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -51 |
Brad Tavares controlled Tom Watson on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 5:25 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 137 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 083 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -18 |
Brad Tavares demonstrated solid activity levels with 137 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Brad Tavares capitalized on this activity level, while Tom Watson's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 066 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -18 |
Brad Tavares extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tom Watson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brad Tavares | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 055 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.