April 12, 2019
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brandon Davis | Randy Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 997 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Brandon Davis's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brandon Davis for the expected result. Had Randy Costa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brandon Davis | Randy Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 989 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brandon Davis | Randy Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:12 | 1:12 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 025 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +74 | -48 |
Brandon Davis earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:12, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Randy Costa was submitted.
| Metric | Brandon Davis | Randy Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 46 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 88 | 101 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 49 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 986 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Randy Costa controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (46 vs 35). However, since Randy Costa lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Brandon Davis's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Brandon Davis | Randy Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:15 | 0:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 954 | 942 |
| ELO Change | +58 | -58 |
Brandon Davis edged out Randy Costa on the ground with 1:15 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brandon Davis | Randy Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 110 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -16 |
Brandon Davis demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Brandon Davis capitalized on this activity level, while Randy Costa's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brandon Davis | Randy Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 995 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -23 |
Brandon Davis started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Randy Costa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brandon Davis | Randy Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 989 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.