September 30, 2016
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brandon Moreno | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 109 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | +109 | -109 |
Brandon Moreno overcame a 6-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 7 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Louis Smolka.
| Metric | Brandon Moreno | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 026 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brandon Moreno | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:23 | 2:23 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 122 | 1 207 |
| ELO Change | +122 | -70 |
Brandon Moreno earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:23, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Brandon Moreno | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 11 | 13 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 21 | 17 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 044 | 1 253 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Brandon Moreno slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 72.7% vs 53.8% accuracy. Brandon Moreno capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brandon Moreno | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:37 | 0:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 097 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | +97 | -97 |
Brandon Moreno controlled Louis Smolka on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:37 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brandon Moreno | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 80 |
| Activity ELO | 1 029 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Brandon Moreno demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Brandon Moreno capitalized on this activity level, while Louis Smolka's 80-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brandon Moreno | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 030 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -27 |
Brandon Moreno started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Louis Smolka is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brandon Moreno | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 026 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.