March 29, 2025
Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brandon Moreno | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 18 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 12 | -12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 261 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Brandon Moreno's 12-fight experience advantage (18 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brandon Moreno for the expected result. Had Steve Erceg pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brandon Moreno | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 225 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brandon Moreno | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 453 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Brandon Moreno earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Brandon Moreno | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 89 | 116 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 176 | 279 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 95 | 119 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 347 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +5 | -5 |
Steve Erceg controlled the striking through superior volume (119 vs 95 total strikes), significant strike advantage (116 vs 89). However, since Steve Erceg lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Brandon Moreno's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Brandon Moreno | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:25 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 281 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Brandon Moreno slightly outworked Steve Erceg on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:25 of control time, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | Brandon Moreno | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 225 |
| Activity ELO | 1 300 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -11 |
Brandon Moreno demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Brandon Moreno capitalized on this activity level, while Steve Erceg's 225-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brandon Moreno | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 176 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -14 |
Brandon Moreno extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Steve Erceg is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brandon Moreno | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 131 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.