October 12, 2024
Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brandon Royval | Tatsuro Taira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 241 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Brandon Royval's 3-fight experience advantage (10 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brandon Royval for the expected result. Had Tatsuro Taira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brandon Royval | Tatsuro Taira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 112 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brandon Royval | Tatsuro Taira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 283 | 1 312 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Brandon Royval receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Brandon Royval | Tatsuro Taira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 124 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 232 | 99 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 172 | 80 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 372 | 1 270 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Brandon Royval dominated the striking exchanges with 172 vs 80 total strikes, 124 vs 42 significant strikes, 53.4% vs 42.4% accuracy. Brandon Royval capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brandon Royval | Tatsuro Taira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 15 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:23 | 12:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 16 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 226 | 1 253 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -61 |
Brandon Royval edged out Tatsuro Taira on the ground with 3 takedowns, 2:23 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Brandon Royval | Tatsuro Taira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 232 | 120 |
| Activity ELO | 1 262 | 1 168 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -18 |
Brandon Royval demonstrated standard activity with 232 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Brandon Royval capitalized on this activity level, while Tatsuro Taira's 120-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brandon Royval | Tatsuro Taira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 140 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -25 |
Brandon Royval extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tatsuro Taira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brandon Royval | Tatsuro Taira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 103 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.