July 10, 2015
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brandon Thatch | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 069 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Brandon Thatch | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 011 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brandon Thatch | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:54 | 2:54 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 146 | 1 249 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +78 |
Gunnar Nelson earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:54, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Brandon Thatch | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 14 | 8 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 8 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 132 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | -93 | +93 |
Gunnar Nelson controlled the striking exchanges with 75.0% vs 57.1% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Gunnar Nelson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brandon Thatch | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:25 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 989 | 1 269 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Gunnar Nelson dominated Brandon Thatch on the ground with 1:25 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brandon Thatch | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 280 |
| Activity ELO | 1 070 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Gunnar Nelson demonstrated standard activity with 280 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Gunnar Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Brandon Thatch's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brandon Thatch | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 019 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Gunnar Nelson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brandon Thatch is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brandon Thatch | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 006 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.