March 4, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brandon Thatch | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 036 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +36 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Brandon Thatch | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 988 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brandon Thatch | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:11 | 4:11 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 097 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +74 |
Siyar Bahadurzada earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:11, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Brandon Thatch was submitted.
| Metric | Brandon Thatch | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 84 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 53 | 138 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 57 | 170 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 076 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +56 |
Siyar Bahadurzada dominated the striking exchanges with 170 vs 57 total strikes, 84 vs 30 significant strikes. Siyar Bahadurzada capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brandon Thatch | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:29 | 8:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 47 |
| Ground ELO | 759 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -230 | +230 |
Siyar Bahadurzada dominated Brandon Thatch on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 8:19 of control time, 47 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brandon Thatch | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 239 | 798 |
| Activity ELO | 1 045 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +23 |
Siyar Bahadurzada demonstrated extended layoff with 798 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Siyar Bahadurzada capitalized on this activity level, while Brandon Thatch's 239-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brandon Thatch | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 996 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +25 |
Siyar Bahadurzada started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brandon Thatch is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brandon Thatch | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.