October 17, 2008
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brandon Vera | Keith Jardine |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 053 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (8 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Brandon Vera | Keith Jardine |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 044 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brandon Vera | Keith Jardine |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 250 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Keith Jardine receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Brandon Vera | Keith Jardine |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 48 | 50 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 86 | 131 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 57 | 59 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 087 | 995 |
| ELO Change | -88 | +88 |
Keith Jardine controlled the striking exchanges with 38.2% vs 55.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Keith Jardine capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brandon Vera | Keith Jardine |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:38 | 3:40 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 1 053 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +51 |
Keith Jardine landed 1 knockdown followed by 10 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Brandon Vera | Keith Jardine |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 91 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 1 154 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +44 |
Keith Jardine demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Keith Jardine capitalized on this activity level, while Brandon Vera's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brandon Vera | Keith Jardine |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 055 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Keith Jardine started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brandon Vera is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brandon Vera | Keith Jardine |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 035 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

