April 5, 2024
Middleweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Chris Curtis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 337 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Brendan Allen's 5-fight experience advantage (14 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brendan Allen for the expected result. Had Chris Curtis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Chris Curtis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 184 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Chris Curtis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 530 | 1 285 |
| ELO Change | +4 | -4 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Brendan Allen receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Chris Curtis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 112 | 124 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 222 | 241 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 128 | 141 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 327 | 1 248 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Chris Curtis controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (124 vs 112). However, since Chris Curtis lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Brendan Allen's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Chris Curtis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 13 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:05 | 1:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 550 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Brendan Allen controlled Chris Curtis on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 6:05 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Chris Curtis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 1 417 | 1 250 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -14 |
Brendan Allen demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Brendan Allen capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Curtis's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Chris Curtis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 7 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 280 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -12 |
Brendan Allen continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Chris Curtis's now at 0.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Chris Curtis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 184 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

