April 23, 2021
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 159 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -27 |
Brendan Allen overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 8 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Karl Roberson.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 066 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:55 | 4:55 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 248 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -29 |
Brendan Allen earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:55, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 14 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 15 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 136 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Brendan Allen slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 56.3% vs 42.9% accuracy. Brendan Allen capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:16 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 200 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Brendan Allen controlled Karl Roberson on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:16 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | 315 |
| Activity ELO | 1 139 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -20 |
Brendan Allen demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Brendan Allen capitalized on this activity level, while Karl Roberson's 315-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 083 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Brendan Allen started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Karl Roberson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 066 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.