September 30, 2022
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Krzysztof Jotko |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 240 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -30 |
Brendan Allen overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (10 vs 17 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Krzysztof Jotko.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Krzysztof Jotko |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 116 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Krzysztof Jotko |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:17 | 4:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 350 | 1 243 |
| ELO Change | +71 | -43 |
Brendan Allen earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:17, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Krzysztof Jotko |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 6 | 6 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 12 | 21 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 145 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Krzysztof Jotko lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Brendan Allen's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Krzysztof Jotko |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:24 | 1:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 280 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | +68 | -68 |
Brendan Allen controlled Krzysztof Jotko on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:24 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Krzysztof Jotko |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 1 286 | 1 209 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -21 |
Brendan Allen demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Brendan Allen capitalized on this activity level, while Krzysztof Jotko's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Krzysztof Jotko |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 147 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -23 |
Brendan Allen extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Krzysztof Jotko is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Krzysztof Jotko |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 116 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.