November 17, 2023
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 318 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -20 |
Brendan Allen overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (13 vs 17 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Paul Craig.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 169 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:38 | 0:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 526 | 1 384 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -36 |
Brendan Allen earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 0:38, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Paul Craig was submitted.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 43 | 14 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 52 | 13 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 308 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Brendan Allen controlled the striking exchanges with 52 vs 13 total strikes, 32 vs 6 significant strikes, 74.4% vs 42.9% accuracy. Brendan Allen capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:58 | 0:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 19 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 534 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Brendan Allen dominated Paul Craig on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 7:58 of control time, 19 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | 120 |
| Activity ELO | 1 390 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -11 |
Brendan Allen demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Brendan Allen capitalized on this activity level, while Paul Craig's 120-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 6 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 244 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -15 |
Brendan Allen continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Paul Craig's now at 0.
| Metric | Brendan Allen | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 169 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.