February 22, 2013
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brendan Schaub | Lavar Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 101 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Brendan Schaub's 4-fight experience advantage (8 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brendan Schaub for the expected result. Had Lavar Johnson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brendan Schaub | Lavar Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 039 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brendan Schaub | Lavar Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 199 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Brendan Schaub earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Brendan Schaub | Lavar Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 31 | 52 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 77 | 170 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 042 | 1 167 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Lavar Johnson controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (170 vs 77 total strikes), significant strike advantage (36 vs 18), superior accuracy (69.2% vs 58.1%). However, since Lavar Johnson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Brendan Schaub's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Brendan Schaub | Lavar Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 12:02 | 0:55 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 18 |
| Ground ELO | 1 132 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Brendan Schaub controlled Lavar Johnson on the ground with 5 vs 1 takedowns, 12:02 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Brendan Schaub | Lavar Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 309 | 274 |
| Activity ELO | 1 135 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Brendan Schaub demonstrated standard activity with 309 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Brendan Schaub capitalized on this activity level, while Lavar Johnson's 274-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brendan Schaub | Lavar Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 060 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Brendan Schaub started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lavar Johnson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brendan Schaub | Lavar Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 038 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.