December 4, 2009
Ultimate Fighter 10 Heavyweight Tournament Title Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brendan Schaub | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Brendan Schaub | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brendan Schaub | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:45 | 3:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 958 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +90 |
Roy Nelson earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:45, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Brendan Schaub | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 48 | 35 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 916 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -84 | +84 |
Roy Nelson controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Roy Nelson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brendan Schaub | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 938 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +62 |
Roy Nelson landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Brendan Schaub | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Roy Nelson demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Roy Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Brendan Schaub's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brendan Schaub | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Roy Nelson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brendan Schaub is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brendan Schaub | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.