November 2, 2024
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brendson Ribeiro | Caio Machado |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 953 | 930 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -23 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Brendson Ribeiro | Caio Machado |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 939 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brendson Ribeiro | Caio Machado |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 953 | 928 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Brendson Ribeiro receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Brendson Ribeiro | Caio Machado |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 49 | 76 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 131 | 184 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 49 | 79 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 904 | 918 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Caio Machado controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (79 vs 49 total strikes), significant strike advantage (76 vs 49). However, since Caio Machado lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Brendson Ribeiro's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Brendson Ribeiro | Caio Machado |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 886 | 903 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Brendson Ribeiro | Caio Machado |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 002 | 943 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -21 |
Brendson Ribeiro demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Brendson Ribeiro capitalized on this activity level, while Caio Machado's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brendson Ribeiro | Caio Machado |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 940 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Brendson Ribeiro started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Caio Machado is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brendson Ribeiro | Caio Machado |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 939 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

