March 15, 2025
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brendson Ribeiro | Diyar Nurgozhay |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 989 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Brendson Ribeiro's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brendson Ribeiro for the expected result. Had Diyar Nurgozhay pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brendson Ribeiro | Diyar Nurgozhay |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 002 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brendson Ribeiro | Diyar Nurgozhay |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:28 | 1:28 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 027 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +74 | -48 |
Brendson Ribeiro earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:28, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Diyar Nurgozhay was submitted.
| Metric | Brendson Ribeiro | Diyar Nurgozhay |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 58 | 39 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 29 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 986 | 918 |
| ELO Change | +82 | -82 |
Brendson Ribeiro controlled the striking exchanges with 28 vs 17 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Brendson Ribeiro capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brendson Ribeiro | Diyar Nurgozhay |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:14 | 0:49 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 941 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
Brendson Ribeiro edged out Diyar Nurgozhay on the ground with 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brendson Ribeiro | Diyar Nurgozhay |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 044 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -21 |
Brendson Ribeiro demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Brendson Ribeiro capitalized on this activity level, while Diyar Nurgozhay's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brendson Ribeiro | Diyar Nurgozhay |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 009 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -22 |
Brendson Ribeiro extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Diyar Nurgozhay is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brendson Ribeiro | Diyar Nurgozhay |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 002 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

