Brendson Ribeiro vs Diyar Nurgozhay

March 15, 2025

Light Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1000
(+45)
Brendson Ribeiro
Winner: Brendson Ribeiro
Submission
Round 2 • 1:28

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Brendson Ribeiro+45
Diyar Nurgozhay-38
962
(-38)
Diyar Nurgozhay

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Brendson Ribeiro: +36Diyar Nurgozhay: -36

Performance Statistics

MetricBrendson RibeiroDiyar Nurgozhay
Total UFC Fights41
Experience Gap3-3
Experience ELO989964
ELO Change+36-36
💡

What Happened

Brendson Ribeiro's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brendson Ribeiro for the expected result. Had Diyar Nurgozhay pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Brendson Ribeiro: +22Diyar Nurgozhay: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricBrendson RibeiroDiyar Nurgozhay
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 002978
ELO Change+22-22
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Brendson Ribeiro: +74Diyar Nurgozhay: -48

Performance Statistics

MetricBrendson RibeiroDiyar Nurgozhay
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish1:281:28
Win Type ELO1 027952
ELO Change+74-48
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What Happened

Brendson Ribeiro earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:28, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Diyar Nurgozhay was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Brendson Ribeiro: +82Diyar Nurgozhay: -82

Performance Statistics

MetricBrendson RibeiroDiyar Nurgozhay
Significant Strikes Landed2817
Significant Strikes Attempted5839
Total Strikes Landed2920
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO986918
ELO Change+82-82
💡

What Happened

Brendson Ribeiro controlled the striking exchanges with 28 vs 17 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Brendson Ribeiro capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Brendson Ribeiro: +55Diyar Nurgozhay: -55

Performance Statistics

MetricBrendson RibeiroDiyar Nurgozhay
Takedowns Landed02
Takedowns Attempted12
Ground Control Time0:140:49
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO941945
ELO Change+55-55
💡

What Happened

Brendson Ribeiro edged out Diyar Nurgozhay on the ground with 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Brendson Ribeiro: +42Diyar Nurgozhay: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricBrendson RibeiroDiyar Nurgozhay
Days Since Last Fight133N/A
Activity ELO1 044979
ELO Change+42-21
💡

What Happened

Brendson Ribeiro demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Brendson Ribeiro capitalized on this activity level, while Diyar Nurgozhay's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Brendson Ribeiro: +27Diyar Nurgozhay: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricBrendson RibeiroDiyar Nurgozhay
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 009978
ELO Change+27-22
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What Happened

Brendson Ribeiro extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Diyar Nurgozhay is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Brendson Ribeiro: +22Diyar Nurgozhay: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricBrendson RibeiroDiyar Nurgozhay
Weight ClassLight HeavyweightLight Heavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 002978
ELO Change+22-22
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.