January 24, 2020
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brett Johns | Tony Gravely |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 067 | 972 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Brett Johns's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brett Johns for the expected result. Had Tony Gravely pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brett Johns | Tony Gravely |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 040 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brett Johns | Tony Gravely |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:53 | 2:53 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 179 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -26 |
Brett Johns earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:53, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Tony Gravely was submitted.
| Metric | Brett Johns | Tony Gravely |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 47 | 44 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 65 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 975 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Brett Johns edged the striking exchanges with 65 vs 43 total strikes, 36 vs 26 significant strikes, 76.6% vs 59.1% accuracy. Brett Johns capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brett Johns | Tony Gravely |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:21 | 4:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 25 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 245 | 865 |
| ELO Change | +135 | -135 |
Brett Johns dominated Tony Gravely on the ground with 6 vs 5 takedowns, 7:21 of control time, 25 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brett Johns | Tony Gravely |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 540 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 078 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -17 |
Brett Johns demonstrated extended layoff with 540 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Brett Johns capitalized on this activity level, while Tony Gravely's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brett Johns | Tony Gravely |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 055 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Brett Johns started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tony Gravely is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brett Johns | Tony Gravely |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 040 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

