November 15, 2013
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brian Ebersole | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 133 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Rick Story's 8-fight experience advantage (14 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rick Story for the expected result. Had Brian Ebersole pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brian Ebersole | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 040 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brian Ebersole | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 182 | 1 277 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Rick Story earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Brian Ebersole | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 42 | 71 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 114 | 199 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 42 | 75 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 166 | 1 312 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +64 |
Rick Story controlled the striking exchanges with 75 vs 42 total strikes, 71 vs 42 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Rick Story capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brian Ebersole | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:25 | 1:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 186 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -97 | +97 |
Rick Story landed 1 knockdown followed by 7 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Brian Ebersole | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 484 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 098 | 1 237 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +27 |
Rick Story demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rick Story capitalized on this activity level, while Brian Ebersole's 484-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Ebersole | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 064 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Rick Story started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brian Ebersole is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brian Ebersole | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 039 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.