June 21, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brian Ebersole | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 220 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -20 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Brian Ebersole | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 087 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brian Ebersole | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 238 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Brian Ebersole earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Brian Ebersole | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 39 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 59 | 41 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 90 | 33 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 271 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Brian Ebersole dominated the striking exchanges with 90 vs 33 total strikes, 39 vs 18 significant strikes, 66.1% vs 43.9% accuracy. Brian Ebersole capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brian Ebersole | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:15 | 1:44 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 19 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 336 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | +78 | -78 |
Brian Ebersole dominated TJ Waldburger on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 8:15 of control time, 19 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Ebersole | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 195 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 142 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -18 |
Brian Ebersole demonstrated standard activity with 195 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Brian Ebersole capitalized on this activity level, while TJ Waldburger's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Ebersole | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 109 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -19 |
Brian Ebersole extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. TJ Waldburger is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brian Ebersole | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 086 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.