February 19, 2010
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brian Foster | Chris Lytle |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -13 | 13 |
| Experience ELO | 977 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Chris Lytle's 13-fight experience advantage (16 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Lytle for the expected result. Had Brian Foster pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brian Foster | Chris Lytle |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brian Foster | Chris Lytle |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:41 | 1:41 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 040 | 1 236 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +55 |
Chris Lytle earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:41, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Brian Foster | Chris Lytle |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 22 | 14 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 049 | 1 168 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Brian Foster lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Chris Lytle's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Brian Foster | Chris Lytle |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:16 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 919 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Brian Foster | Chris Lytle |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 91 | 246 |
| Activity ELO | 1 044 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +21 |
Chris Lytle demonstrated standard activity with 246 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Chris Lytle capitalized on this activity level, while Brian Foster's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Foster | Chris Lytle |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Chris Lytle extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brian Foster is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brian Foster | Chris Lytle |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.